A Survey
It seems that the debate comes down to what private users on the Rogue River want. I believe that there are many private users that want a reservation system. This comes from discussions I’ve had with private boaters at meetings and on the River. Not exactly scientific. I also hear the opposite.
I would like to come up with a fair way to poll Rogue River private boaters about:
- If they think they think there is a problem
- What they think the solution is
- And, if they would support a reservation system
The hard part will be conducting the survey fairly. Any thoughts about how to conduct a survey and what the questions should be?
Category: Campsite Congestion
November 20th, 2008 at 11:08 am
A fair legitimate survey is very expensive and difficult to do. It would require an independent organization to contact several hundred river runners. An online survey is worthless because the people being surveyed initiate the contact. It reflects only the view of those that participate. A small group of individuals can easily manipulate an online survey. Don’t waste your time, because the results are simply meaningless.
November 20th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
I just took the online survey, twice. I did it twice, not to influence the result, but to demonstrate one of the problems with online surveys. I could have taken the survey ten times, or a hundred. I could email all my friends and ask them to fill it in hundreds of times. Ultimately the result is totally meaningless.
November 20th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Larry,
I can see your point. There are ways to limit the number of times an online survey is taken by a single person, but it is true that you could email your friends to fill in a fraudulent survey. I know that my friends would raise an eyebrow if I emailed them to fill out a fraudulent survey.
We could also send a survey out to members of the NWRA and the OWA in their newsletters. With the BLM’s help I’d also be interested in sending one to all river users from last year to complete and return. There may be a way that the BLM could email Rogue River users an online survey that can only be filled out by the recipient of the email.
I’m hoping to discuss how some of the questions would be worded so that we could present a survey like this to the BLM. They are very busy and would probably appreciate some help with this.
I do think an unofficial survey would be at least interesting. It’s free to administer and if we kept in mind that it’s possible to sway the results, we may learn something.
November 20th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
I’m pretty sure the BLM won’t give you the name and addresses of last years participants. And they don’t even collect email addresses, so that’s out. At a minimum there would be mailing costs. There is a lot of labor in creating the survey. Then you have to compile the data and enter it into a computer. Then you use your survey software to crunch the numbers. Then you still have to analyze the results.
A proper survey costs a lot of money. A bad survey is worse than no survey at all. You might be able to use a bad survey to affirm whatever it is that you want to believe, but you won’t learn anything from a bad survey.
November 20th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Wow. Not a whole lot of positivity.
Is it true for me to assume that you oppose any efforts we make?
November 20th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
I would support a well thought out proposal that dealt with the problems without a strong commercial bias. The issue of campsite crowding is a very complex problem that requires a lot of careful thought to avoid unintended consequences. I am trying to think this complex problem through to see some of the pitfalls.
Your survey proposal was not very well thought out. I was trying to save you from putting a lot of work into a worthless survey. If you prefer, I will wait until your survey is complete to examine it. Have at it.
November 21st, 2008 at 8:52 am
With respect… it seems Larry is more interested in throwing up roadblocks rather than discussing solutions. It’s trash someone’s idea, not so much to actually come up with solutions to a very obvious issue yourself. I say this as one private boater to another.
While I agree an online survey is easily manipulated, if there was buy-in on the part of the BLM to assist in these efforts, a very reasonable survey could be mailed to known river users in order to gather information. Said survey, worded properly so as to not lead responses, would most certainly shed some light on the issue and help guide further discussion and plan-development.
The idea here is to work towards a solution… not just complain about what other people say or think.
November 21st, 2008 at 8:53 am
Sorry… “It’s trash…” = “It’s easy to trash…”
No edit function on the blog comments eh? hehehe.
November 21st, 2008 at 10:48 am
Nick, Zach made a proposal that had some serious problems. He asked for feedback. You can’t put up a proposal and ask for feedback without expecting to get it. I have been very careful to criticize only ideas, and not the people that present them. Perhaps you should do the same.
As for working for a solution, I’m not sure I agree that there is problem. The use on the rogue has been nearly identical for most of the last thirty years. The number of campsites has only changed slightly as floods rearranged the sand from year to year. Reserved campsites have been debated and rejected many times in the last thirty years. So, what has changed? Seriously, what do you think is different from the way things have been for thirty years?
I am simply trying to prevent a few commercial interests from disturbing what has been a delicate balance between private and commercial boaters.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Larry, again, with respect, you were bring critical without being constructive. My comments were strictly related to your comments, not your person. While you can argue that Zach was asking for feedback to his survey method only… doing so ignores entirely his clear and obvious intent to find a solution to what is a difficult situation for many. Being critical for the sake of being critical is anything but constructive.
If you don’t think there’s a problem, that is entirely fair. Many others disagree. Explain your reasoning and evidence so that the issue can be clarified, debated, and resolved. Who knows… you might actually be right!
On that note, are you suggesting that usage hasn’t increased on the Rogue in the past thirty years? I most certainly can prove that to be entirely false based simply on the limited information that the BLM provides at the annual usage meetings. If more detailed information exists - I’m sure the fact that usage (demand) has outpaced the resource in question would become glaringly clear.
Zach - try to get buy-in from the BLM to send out a survey to, at the very least, those folks who attend the annual users meeting. Create said survey in partnership with the BLM, the FS, a couple private boaters, and a couple commercial outfitters. Said development and application would certainly be appropriate and acceptable in terms of creating some framework around the problem (if one indeed exists) as well as any possible solutions.
As I said before, while I’m in favor of a reservation system - one that is voluntary in nature will surely only cause more harm than good. The last thing you need is fighting on the river because someone who wants to abide by a voluntary system comes upon “their reserved” space to find it occupied by someone who doesn’t give two hoots about the voluntary system. Without buy in and enforcement on the part of the BLM or FS, a reservation system is dead in the water.
November 21st, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Nick, I don’t have the data on total annual use right in front of me, but my memory is that it increased sharply in the first few years after 1972 and then has been pretty stable since about 1980. If you have the actual figures lets see them.
There were some differences in the annual totals for years that the BLM changed the dates of the permit season. The permit season used to start on June first, so it missed the memorial day launches. And the season used to end right after labor day, so it missed most of the steelhead season as well. The usage for the summer months has been pretty constant if you only look at July and August. If you have figures that dispute this please post them.
November 22nd, 2008 at 7:28 am
i’ll find the data and post. funny though, larry, that you continue to make assertions and request information from others without offering any of your own. again, lack of construction. makes it seem like you’re being difficult just to be difficult.
at any rate, i’ll see if i can find my copies of the user data and will post once i can find it. at worst, i’m sure i can email blm and they’ll send me the ppt slide with the (basic) info.
doesn’t matter what USED to be… the current system is the current system. using crazy old-school stats based on an entirely different permit system is entirely pointless as the CURRENT system is the one we have to work within.
November 22nd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Nick, let me review the conversation for you.
I said, “Seriously, what do you think is different from the way things have been for thirty years?”
You said, “On that note, are you suggesting that usage hasn’t increased on the Rogue in the past thirty years? I most certainly can prove that to be entirely false based simply on the limited information that the BLM provides at the annual usage meetings.”
In my post above I was asking a question. It was not an assertion, it was a question. Your assertion was a response to my question, and you offered to prove your assertion. Your assertion came first, so maybe the burden of proof is on you.